Hydrological Prediction and Risk Assessment under Uncertainty
【讲座题目】Hydrological Prediction and Risk Assessment under Uncertainty
【讲座地点】北京校部 教四楼B 402
【主 讲 人】Yurui Fan, Research Fellow, Institute for Energy, Environment and Sustainable Communities, University of Regina，Canada
Yurui Fan is a research fellow at the Institute for Energy, Environment and Sustainable Communities, University of Regina. He got his Ph.D degree in Environmental Systems Engineering at the University of Regina. His research mainly focuses on quantitative analyses and modeling of water systems, stochastic process and statistical hydrology, and climate change and adaptation. In the past several years, he has published nearly 60 journal papers, with some of them published on in the leading journals such as Water Resources Research, IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems, Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management (ASCE), Journal of Hydrology, Advances in Water Resources, and Environmental Modelling & Software.
Due to the combined effects of climate change and human activities, watersheds in China are suffering from increasing changes in their hydrological conditions. Such changes, mainly demonstrated through the trends in streamflow and the frequency of extreme events, have caused increasing occurrences of floods and droughts as well as regional water shortage. There is an urgent need to re-examine the capacities of existing hydrological infrastructures in flood control and drought mitigation. This study aims at developing a set of innovative theories and methodologies to improve risk assessment of hydrological engineering design in a changing environment. It will (i) integrate methods of physical and mathematical analysis to identify the key factors that cause uncertainties in hydrological simulation and the interactions between these factors, and (ii) explore the uncertainties in hydrological frequency analysis in terms of sample composition, model type, parameter estimation and their interactions. An integrated risk assessment methodology will be developed, which combines the uncertainty analysis of hydrological frequency calculation and rainfall-runoff simulation and is able to reflect the impacts of environment change. Case studies will be undertaken in the Wei River Watershed in order to (i) identify the key risk incentives under environment change and (ii) evaluate the risk of existing infrastructures as well as the reliability of future designs. The outputs of this project will provide scientific support for the water resources management in China